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Former President Donald Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential race at 2:30 AM, preparing for a second term in office. The Associated Press (AP) called the race for Trump at 6:30 AM, with votes still being counted in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Maine. As of this writing, Trump has won 292 electoral college votes to Vice President Harris's 224, surpassing the 270-vote threshold for victory. Trump also won the popular vote decisively, garnering 71,858,238 votes (51%) to Vice President Harris's 66,990,708 (47.5%).

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<a href="https://apnews.com/article/ap-votecast-elections-harris-trump-voters-d5cf4e3611f50ec4349d93ddc7f037cd">The&nbsp;Associated Press&nbsp;noted voter trends in exit polls here.</a>

Republicans won back control of the U.S. Senate, though the exact margin of control is not yet clear. Democrats had expected to lose control of the chamber (51D-49R) after the map of senators up for re-election put 15 Democratic incumbents at risk this cycle.&nbsp;Should no incumbents lose in the remaining races, the balance will be 52 Republicans to 48 Democrats.&nbsp;Races remain uncalled, however, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada.&nbsp;Should the current voting trends hold, Republicans will control 54 seats to Democrats’ 46 seats.

The bipartisan Michael Best team is well-positioned to represent our clients in the new political environment, with several senior Republican congressional and Trump White House alumni offering top-tier client services. To learn more about our staff and capabilities, contact your servicing team.

Control of the House remains less clear. Unlike the Senate, where the re-election map for favored Republican candidates, all 435 seats in the House are up for re-election every two years. As of this writing,&nbsp;AP has called 198 seats for Republicans and 180 seats for Democrats (378 total).&nbsp;AP has yet to call 57 seats; Republicans need 20 to take the majority, and Democrats need 38. Most of the races yet to be called are in states on the West Coast (California, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Alaska), or in states with tight margins in the presidential election (Pennsylvania and Michigan).&nbsp;If current voting trends hold, Republicans will hold 222 seats to Democrats’ 213, yielding a 5-vote margin of control.

With control of the Senate solidified,&nbsp;Senate Republicans will choose a new Majority Leader on November 12. The candidates are current Whip and front-runner Senator John Thune (R- SD), Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), and freshly re-elected Senator Rick Scott (R-FL). These leaders may try to win votes by ceding certain leadership powers to the rank-and-file, such as control over the floor amendment process and allowing committees more power to drive legislation to the Senate floor.

For Senate Democrats, the loss of longtime committee leaders triggers a reshuffle that could shake out in surprising ways. For example, on Senate Banking, progressive Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) could face off against members with more seniority, including current Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) and Senate Armed Services Chair.

Jack Reed (D-RI). Senator Reed or Senator Warner’s move to Senate Banking could trigger shifts on their current national security committees, and so on. Similarly, on Senate Appropriations, Defense Subcommittee Chair Jon Tester’s loss (D-MT) open his slot for a shuffle of 12 “cardinals” overseeing different federal spending priorities.

In the House, Republicans also plan an immediate leadership election. If Republicans lose the House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may face challenges to his leadership. Rep.

Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) both stepped up their fundraising and outreach to House GOP factions in recent weeks, though others could emerge. If Republicans keep or expand their majority, Johnson may move to solidify his position by reversing this Congress’ notorious rule allowing individual House members to call a vote to remove the Speaker.

Among House Democrats, the top leadership position of Minority Leader appears locked in for Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Elsewhere, the loss of top House Appropriations members like Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) will push a reorganization of leaders on that key committee.

While the details are still settling, Republicans will drive action in Washington for at least the&nbsp; next two years. Expect a new Trump Administration to deprioritizing Biden-era regulations on the environment, workforce, health, and energy production. A Republican- controlled Senate allows Trump to quickly staff new political appointments, which could include newcomers to government like billionaire Elon Musk. On the campaign trail, Musk said he plans to lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency” to cut a promised $2 trillion in spending. Trump has also demanded more control of congressionally appropriated dollars (“impoundment”), which could further expand the limits of presidential power in the federal spending process.

Democrats still hope to win at least a narrow majority by knocking out incumbents in states like New York and California. With Trump returning to the White House and Republicans taking the Senate, a GOP House majority would allow Republicans to enact&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1854012240522785204">many of their grandest plans.</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1854012240522785204">For example, Republicans are planning to quickly use “budget reconciliation”,&nbsp;</a>made easier with single party control, to potentially cut mandatory spending, rewrite the tax code to lower corporate taxes, and roll back clean energy tax incentives.

Pennsylvania: Trump won Pennsylvania in a tight race, capturing 50% of the vote to Harris’ 48%. Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold, went for Harris but by a slimmer margin than expected. The surrounding suburban counties also shifted toward Democrats but was not enough to overcome increased Trump support in the rest of the state.

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North Carolina: President Trump won North Carolina early on. Unlike the presidential race, Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein notched a decisive gubernatorialvictory with 51% of the vote. Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson, who did not run for reelection after his seat was gerrymandered, won the state-wide attorney general race.

Georgia: Trump won back the state after losing it during the 2020 presidential  election. In the final hours, national security officials warned that Russian-based actors emailed false bomb threats to briefly shut down polling sites across the state. Swaths of urban areas like Atlanta appear to have underperformed for Democrats, while suburbs and rural areas shifted to Trump.

Michigan: Harris underperformed in Wayne County (Detroit) compared to President Biden in 2020. Grand Rapids in Kent County and Flint in Genesee County both went to Harris, as expected.

Wisconsin: Milwaukee County, which has the state’s largest city, went for Harris as expected. Adjacent to Milwaukee were the "WOW" counties, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington, that swayed towards the GOP.

Arizona and Nevada: As of this writing, President Trump is narrowly leading in both states as ballots are still under count.

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Balance of Power: Key Congressional Races

Pennsylvania: Four-term Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) is currently running a few thousand votes behind ex-hedge fund leader David McCormick, but the race is not yet called.

Ohio: Republican Bernie Moreno defeated three-term incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Despite Brown’s strong support in urban counties, Moreno managed to secure victory by appealing to voters across the state. This election was one of the most expensive Senate races in history, surpassing $500 million in ad spending.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a former CIA agent, defeated former Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-MI) bid to fill retiring Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow’s (D- MI) seat. Rogers campaigned on securing U.S. borders, while Slotkin is an ex-CIA agent.

North Carolina: Democrat incumbent Rep. Don Davis fended off Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in a newly drawn, toss-up district encompassing mostly rural areas including Rocky Mount, Henderson and Greenville. Elsewhere, redistricting allowed Republicans such as incoming Rep.-elect Addison McDowell (R- NC) to easily win.

Wisconsin: Third-term incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) defeated businessman Eric Hovde. Baldwin emphasized her bipartisan efforts on healthcare, veterans' issues, and economic development, even receiving an endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation.

Texas: Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) defeated Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) despite Senate Democrats’ campaign arm spending millions in the state and polls showing Allred only a few points behind Cruz. In the next Congress, Senator Cruz is set to take over the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, which oversees policy for everything from transportation to interstate communications to deep-sea mining.

Arizona: As of this writing, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is leading by about three points for Arizona’s Senate seat, where he appears to be outpacing Kamala Harris’ performance in the presidential race. However, the race may not be called until late today. Gallego’s campaign pointedly appeal to Hispanic male voters, which appears to have been a weak spot for other Democratic candidates in this cycle.

Nevada: Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is about 1,000 votes behind challenger and former U.S. Army officer Sam Brown, though several thousand more ballots need to be counted. In the House, incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV), Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), and Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) are all running ahead of their Republican challengers.

Not every result of the night was surprising: Republicans picked up a Democratic seat with West Virginia Governor Jim Justice flipping the seat held by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), who announced his retirement late last year and called himself an Independent in his final months in Congress.

Similarly, in Florida, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D-FL) lost her challenge to Senator Rick Scott (R-FL). While national Democrats did not invest much in Florida, the result highlights the state’s shift to solidly Republican with no prospect for returning to its former “swing” status.

Elsewhere, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) comfortably won election to the U.S. Senate early in the night, after fending off fellow Democrats in the states’ party- neutral primaries. Several more California House races, however, including House Appropriations Defense Chair Ken Calvert’s (R-CA), are still too close to call.

Our team will continue to monitor outcomes from the 2024 election.

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