Latest on Trade Deals
Japan: On Wednesday, July 23, the Trump Administration announced a trade deal with Japan, involving the U.S. reducing proposed tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15% while Japan expands U.S. imports in the agricultural, energy, defense, aerospace, and auto sectors. A distinguishing provision is Japan’s commitment to invest roughly $550 billion in the U.S. on semiconductors, energy, and AI. Japan will also ease non-tariff barriers by removing certain vehicle safety inspections, and the U.S. has pledged to protect sensitive Japanese sectors from punitive tariffs. Ongoing talks will address unresolved issues, such as the 50% U.S. tariff on Japanese steel and aluminum. Japanese officials clarified that a 15% vehicle tariff is related to Section 232 tariffs, but final details await official documentation. The US-Japan deal “could be” a model for the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently said in an interview.
Indonesia: In the Trump Administration’s released trade deal, Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. industrial and agricultural exports and remove key non-tariff barriers, including local content requirements and restrictions on U.S. standards for vehicles, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. Indonesia will also lift export bans on critical minerals and support a WTO moratorium on digital customs duties. In exchange, the U.S. will impose tariffs on Indonesian imports to 19% rather than the threatened 32% from Liberation Day. A central feature of the deal is enhanced enforcement against unfair trade practices, particularly targeting China, through stricter rules on transshipment, export controls, and duty evasion. Notably, the agreement adopts a broader definition of transshipment to include goods containing a threshold level of inputs from non-market economies, even if partially assembled in Indonesia, subjecting them to a 40% tariff. This marks a tougher U.S. stance on trade circumvention. Talks will continue on unresolved issues like rules of origin and Section 232 tariffs.
The Philippines: The recent Philippines-U.S. trade deal, announced by President Trump after talks with President Marcos Jr., sets a 19% tariff on Philippine exports to the U.S., a modest reduction from an initially proposed 20%, but higher than the proposed 17% rate. While the Philippines agreed to zero tariffs on certain U.S. goods, notably on automobiles, overall concessions were limited. The Philippines committed to increasing imports of U.S. soy, wheat, and pharmaceuticals, signaling some market access gains for U.S. producers. The deal also highlighted ongoing military cooperation between the two countries amid regional security tensions involving China.
Vietnam: The trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam focused on curbing transshipment, enhancing market access, and deepening economic ties. The U.S. reduced proposed tariffs on verified Vietnamese-origin goods from 46% to 20%, while imposing 40% tariffs on goods suspected of Chinese transshipment. In return, Vietnam committed to eliminate tariffs on a range of U.S. exports, including liquid natural gas (LNG), automobiles, and agricultural products, and pledged to increase imports of U.S. goods like Boeing aircraft. The deal also included cooperation on enforcing rules of origin, strengthening customs oversight, and addressing non-tariff barriers through regulatory coordination.
Trade Deal with the E.U. Coming Soon…
While the U.S. and E.U. are ongoing, reports indicate that negotiators are honing in on a deal that could include a 15% tariff on most European imports to the U.S., with waivers for key products. Officials are preparing for all outcomes amid threats from President Trump to impose 30% tariffs if no agreement is reached by August 1. The final decision hinges on Trump, leaving the resolution uncertain.
The European Union also plans to merge two separate retaliation packages into a single list targeting €93 billion worth of U.S. imports (including bourbon, airplanes, and soybeans) as a precaution if trade talks with the Trump Administration break down. The merged list, set to take effect on August 7 unless suspended, consolidates responses to Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs with more recent proposals, aiming to simplify and strengthen the E.U.'s countermeasures. The European Commission secured broad backing from all E.U. countries (except Hungary) on the retaliatory measures.
Bessent Meets with China on Trade Deal
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet his Chinese counterpart next week in Stockholm, Sweden, to continue trade negotiations. The current 90-day suspension of heavy tariffs between the U.S. and China is scheduled to expire on August 12. The talks follow several rounds of negotiations that significantly reduced tariffs from their peak levels earlier this year. Bessent expressed optimism about the progress, highlighting discussions on broader issues like China’s manufacturing focus and its purchase of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil.
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Are you concerned about the impacts of the outlined trade issues? Please contact Sarah Helton, Michael Best Strategies’ Trade Practice Lead at sarah.helton@michaelbest.com for assistance.